Laatste échte KW2-cijferdag

23 augustus 2012 - 10:07u

Eerste reactie banken en analisten op cijfers Ahold - "Vlees noch vis" - en BAM: "Wat een afschrijvingen"! Pharming moet "overleven".

Stroom cijfers vandaag met Ahold als laatste AEX-fonds én met een vlees noch vis rapportage, afgaande op de eerste morning notes van de banken. Onderaan treft u een pittige mening van Rabobank over BAM. KBC Securities hijst nog net niet de witte vlag voor Pharming (hoewel, het advies is sell met koersdoel 0,01 euro), maar:

"Pharming’s 1H12 update and cash burn underline our previous statements that the company is struggling for survival."  

Ahold
Dat is duidelijke taal. Mochten er meer opvallende of interessante stukjes over de tal van cijferende fondsen vandaag binnenkomen, dan komen die er uiteraard bij. Dan nu de meningen over Ahold en die zijn vrij eenduidig.

ING Equity Research:
Ahold 2Q12 saw sales performance everywhere better than consensus, with USA at +2.2 IDs (consensus: +1.6%) and Holland at +1.5% (consensus: +1.3%). US EBIT margin was 20bps above consensus (and in line with INGF) at 4.3%.  It was also 20bps above last year. NL EBIT margin missed at 5.4%, compared to 6.0% for consensus (ex BOL.com: 5.6%). There was, as usual, no outlook.

Holland disappointed due to increased promotional activity (C1000 was very aggressive, but this brand will cease to exist in a few years time as it has been acquired by the new no.2 Jumbo, 82 stores have also been acquired by Ahold) and an unsuccessful European football championship campaign.

Rabobank:
"No outlook is provided. Qualitative indications remain in line with previously provided comments. In all, we see no reason to change our Buy rating."

Morgan Stanley:
"Overall, while Ahold's top line was marginally better than expected in 2Q, adjusted underlying EBIT came in 4% shy of consensus expectations, when adjusting for a one-off welfare item in the US.

JPMorgan Cazenove:
"Overall in line I think is good enough at headline lvl, but unlike Delhaize yestersay not a consensual underweight and it still looks like H2 numbers are too high. "

Goldman Sachs:
"Ahold 2Q12 results - overall in line at sales and a touch below consensus at operating profit; strength in the US offset by weakness in the Netherlands. Cautious outlook." 

KBC Securities:
Management expects market conditions to remain difficult as competition continues to be intense while consumers remain value driven. They are also cautious about the potential impact of rising food commodity costs, particularly in the US for the balance of the year. The group is on target to deliver € 350m cost savings in 2012-2014. We maintain our Accumulate rating and € 11.5 target price."

Thedodoor Gilissen:
"Goede resultaten in moeilijke markt. Onze rating blijft Kopen aangezien het bedrijf met sterke marktposities in de Verenigde Staten en Nederland in staat blijft goede resultaten te halen.

BAM
Rabobank:
"The write-down on property development and goodwill impairment is even larger than anticipated (and we had by far the most aggressive write-down scenario in our model versus market estimates). In our view, it is clearly positive that BAM management is taking into account a more conservative scenario on the Dutch housing market.

However, the size of the write-down might surprise the market in a negative way and the loss also implies uncertainty regarding the dividend. The operational performance shows that BAM is well in control in very difficult market circumstances. We anticipate a lower opening of the share price but see no reason to change our investment case.

Our sum of the parts incorporates a 30% write dwon on property development assets (BAM announced today 16%). Buy reiterated and in our view the shares are attractive for value investors with a longer horizon."

SNS Securities:
"The size of BAM’s (non cash) write down on the land bank was a lot higher than our and market expectations. With this write down market concerns regarding the valuation of the land bank should be addressed, which we believe is positive. Operational results were also lower than expected, as is the the outlook (but BAM is always conservative). We will decrease our FY12 earnings estimates, but continue to be positive on the stock."

KBC Securities:
The potential for impairments was already more or less flagged, but the size was still able to impress us. Based on FY 2012 guidance and comments on housing and other segments, earnings should remain subdued for another 2- 3 years at current levels, at best. This implies PBT of € 100-120m, which translates into EPS of € 0.31-0.37.

A simplified approach of using a PE of 6x, implies a TP of € 1.9-2.2 at best, so no upside potential.

Thedoor Gilissen:
"De teerling is geworpen: met deze afboeking heeft het bedrijf schoon schip gemaakt voor de komende jaren. Op de huidige waardering is onze rating Kopen."

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