ASML: Intel inside

10 juli 2012 - 10:50u

Het Damrak juicht over ASML, dat een mega-
injectie van grote klant Intel krijgt. Analisten over de deal en de... upside? (update).

De AEX laat vanochtend alle Europese concurrenten zijn gevederde hielen zien en dat is allemaal te danken aan het nieuws dat Intel een investering van 2,2 miljard euro in ASML doet. Daarvan gaat 553 miljoen rechtstreeks in R&D en met de overige 1,7 miljard euro neemt Intel een belang van 10% in ASML.

De investering maakt deel uit van de volgende grote sprong voorwaarts in chiptechnologie - "extreme ultraviolet" (EUV)-techniek en de overgang naar 450-mm waferdikte, om precies te zijn - waarvoor ASML partnerships wil aangaan met haar grootste afnemers. ASML wil daarvoor maximaal 25% van de eigen aandelen in de strijd gooien; als alles volgens plan verloopt zal Intel daar uiteindelijk 15% van voor haar rekening nemen.

Prima nieuws dus, op het eerste oog, en de koers van ASML schiet vanochtend dan ook door het dak; rond half elf staat het aandeel 8,5% in de plus op 43,30 euro. Is dat terecht? De eerste commentaren van ASML-analisten druppelen binnen en die zijn op zich positief, maar is er nog veel upside?

Bank of America Merrill Lynch

• "We view this agreement as a positive for ASML given our long-standing thesis that key lithography vendors can benefit significantly from their critical role in addressing the challenges associated with customer adoption of leading edge technology."
• "There is no change to our €44 price objective (US$58/ADR). The deal is structured such that there is minimal share dilution. We reiterate our Buy rating."

UBS

• "We believe the impact is: no change in net share count, R&D will go up (ASML aims to recruit 20-30% more engineers) as will gross profit, the current buyback has been put on hold and longer term investors have the security of major customer support and the possibility of higher industry revenue driven by innovation. We make no changes to our EBIT forecasts despite tweaking our gross profit/R&D and we fractionally trim our EPS forecasts to reflect the pausing of the buyback."
• "Our DCF valuation remains unchanged at €44 (g 2%, WACC 9%) but we view the news as positive for the company as it should help to solidify ASML’s industry leading position."

SNS Securities

• De overeenkomst benadrukt de dominante positie die ASML nog een aanzienlijke tijd zal innemen op de markt voor lithomachines, zegt Victor Bareño van SNS Securities. Intel hanteert formeel nog altijd een model met meerdere leveranciers, maar lijkt met deze overeenkomst toe te geven dat op het gebied van EUV- en 450mm-technologie ASML het rijk alleen krijgt.
• Het geld dat Intel beschikbaar stelt voor onderzoek en innovatie zal de marges van ASML verbeteren en vertegenwordigt een directe waarde van 2 euro per aandeel, aldus Bareño.

JP Morgan

• "for  each  euro  of  equity  investment  by  any customer  in  ASML,  the customer  will  be  required  to  contribute  33  euro cents to ASML to fund R&D investments associated with this program. If the entire 25% available shares are fully subscribed, customers would have acquired the shares for an aggregate value of €4.19bn (@ price of €39.91/share), and would have committed R&D funding of €1.38bn for ‘13 to ‘17."

Rabobank

• The announcement by ASML is obviously positive in several ways. Related to the equity investment, it shows how important Intel believes lithography is for the future of ICs. Moreover, the fact that Intel, one of the key remaining supporters of Nikon litho machines, is the launching customer in this equity investment program, is a great sign of confidence in ASML and EUV.
• On the other hand, the investment takes place at a fixed price of EUR 39.9, so there is no premium paid for the stake. In fact, you just have a forced replacement of your stake into cash. Related to the R&D funding support, this is something ASML has been talking about for some time. It reduces capital invested and reduces the risk of any new litho technology, but we believe this is not a gift, i.e. this funding will probably be paid back later, either in full or through lower ASPs. This is more or less the same as with the EUV prepayments over the last 2 years.
• First impression: positive, but do not exaggerate it, it's not a blow out deal.

ING

• As part of this program, ASML may issue up to an aggregate 25 percent minority equity stake to customers. The entire cash proceeds from the share issuance will be returned to ASML shareholders (not including participating customers) through a synthetic share buy back. Alongside these equity investments, participating customers would fund a significant portion of ASML's research and development (R&D) activities for the next five years.
• Intel is the first participant in the customer co-investment program, and has committed to acquire up to a 15% equity ownership interest at a subscription price of EUR 39.91 per share, and to also provide EUR 829 million to ASML in R&D funding. Other customers are currently evaluating joining the program.
• Price: €39.75. Last published: target price: €40.50; recommendation: HOLD

Crédit Agricole Cheuvreux

• Conclusion: The transactions will have no impact on ASML's number of shares. However, the return of the total return of proceeds, likely EUR10/share, is much greater than what was expected. At the same time, customers' funding of future R&D is a very substantial relief, lowering future self-funded expenses despite the acceleration of R&D in next gen technology, thereby positively impacting the DCF value. We believe the news are highly welcome for shareholders and in particular the commitment of Intel cannot be overrated in terms of relevance. Our positive stance is strongly underpinned.

Goldman Sachs

• The programme is for up to an aggregate 25% minority equity stake at €39.91 per share, which if taken up by customers in full, would result in a 3-for-4 stock split and a capital repayment of €9.98 per share. Intel has committed to at least 15% as the initial participating customer, and so the minimum new share issuance (and thereby repayment to existing shareholders) will be a 17-for-20 stock split and a €5.99 per share repayment.
• Given Intel’s commitment, we would expect potential uptake from other customers. The indicative timeline includes an EGM on September 7, a record date on November 28, and an intended cash payment to shareholders on December 3, assuming shareholder approval. We note the newly issued shares would be held in a trust and would carry limited voting rights.
• Our ASML price target is under review. In our view equity participation by Intel and potentially other customers clearly reflects ASML’s strategic asset status in the industry, and to that end ASML remains on the GS SUSTAIN Focus List of global industry leaders.
• We welcome the intended shareholder re-distribution through the intended share issue (up to 25% of market cap), while noting that ASML’s current share buy-back programme is on hold until this transaction has been completed, leaving the company with further potential to distribute excess cash.

Oh, en voor wie het heeft gemist in IEX Voorbeurs, hier nog even het officiële commentaar van ASML-CFO Peter Wennink.

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