RBS' Flop 11

19 oktober 2011 - 15:54u

RBS verwacht Europese recessie en 25% winstdaling en zet daarom mes in adviezen en koersdoelen elf Nederlandse aandelen. Wie?

Niet tien, niet twaalf, nee maar liefst zeventien Nederlandse fondsen neemt RBS vandaag in een speciaal Benelux Equities rapport onder de loep. De Britten schuwen daarbij niet advieswijzingen en vooral – koersdoelverlagingen van vele tientallen procenten. Verlagingen, want er zit geen enkele verhoging bij. Wat maakt RBS zo bearish?

De bank valt met de deur in huis: “Onze economen voorspellen dat Europa nog voor het einde van het jaar een recessie tegemoet gaat, die wij in de schattingen meenemen. Daarom verlagen wij onze winst per aandeelschattingen met gemiddeld 25%.In deze fase van de economische cyclus moeten beleggers een uitgebalanceerde portfolio hebben van cyclische en defensieve aandelen.”

Favorietenlijst
Gefilterd voor Belgische aandelen ziet et favorietenlijstje van RBS ziet er als volgt uit, met soms de moeilijk of niet te vertalen omschrijvingen in het Engels:

Long

• CSM: bombed-out defensive
• DSM en Boskalis Westminster: quaility high bèta
• Imtech: secular growth

Short

• Air France-KLM: cyclisch
• Heineken: defensief

Toppers
CSM: buy – 14 euro
CSM is our contrarian valuation call. It’s unloved and bombed out, but darn cheap. With so many
negatives out in the open, we believe it would difficult for CSM to disappoint again. Following two
profit warnings, CSM is one of the worst performers in the Benelux in 2011.

DSM: buy – 54 euro
We like DSM for its exposure to Nutrition (roughly 60% of EBIT) business. Furthermore, we believe the company’s war chest of close to €2.0bn should provide a positive trigger in this buyer’s market.

Boskalis-Westminster: buy – 29 euro
Boskalis continues to believe that some €50bn worth of dredging orders will come to the market through 2015. Tender activity remains high. We expect earnings recovery in 2013. The shares look cheap at an 18-39% discount to historical valuation metrics.

Imtech: buy – 26 euro
The current orderbook of €5.7bn exceeds one year of sales and the long-term drivers remain intact. We include recent acquisitions in our forecasts, but lower our organic growth forecasts.

Floppers
Air France-KLM: sell – 4,75 euro
Recent commentary from airlines has identified weakening cargo and long-haul economy class demand, but we have yet to see a softening in long-haul premium travel demand. We strongly expect that long-haul premium demand will weaken this winter.

Heineken: hold – 34 euro
“We have a more cautious view on consumer spending, especially in the developed world. Consumer Staples numbers will hold up better than those of most other sectors, but if 2009 is a guide, the sector is not immune and we can expect downgrades of about 15%

Flop 10
Dan nu die tien aandelen waar RBS het mes in zet, met de belangrijkste beweegredenen daarvoor:

Aegon: hold – 3,80 euro (was 5,70 euro)
We believe Aegon is in a better position in this downturn than the previous one, because of de-risking and a stronger capital position. As such, we expect AEGON will be able to continue its dividend payments. We keep our Hold rating as we prefer ING.

AkzoNobel: hold (was buy) – 36 euro (was 54 euro)
Momentum is clearly negative for AkzoNobel, although most of this should be priced in. Raw material deflation and cost savings in 2012 could help, but will be partly offset by down-trading. We see therefore no significant upside from these levels.

Beter Bed: hold – 16 euro (was 19 euro)
We like Beter Bed's business model, but we choose to remain cautious. We lower our FY12/13F estimates by 8% on average to reflect our cautious stance on lfl growth and new store openings.

Fugro: buy – 50 euro (was 65 euro)
Organic growth should level off quickly in 2H11. We lower our 2012 margin forecasts by 24%, as we take out all organic growth and margin expansion from our model for the foreseeable future.

ING: buy – 8 euro (was 10 euro)
Though the divestment of ING Insurance might be delayed, we expect ING Bank's relatively strong capital position will enable it to repay the government capital. We believe the valuation remains attractive at 0.6x 2011F TCE and 6x 2012F EPS.

MacIntosh: hold: 13 euro (was 17 euro)
We include a mild recession in our model and lower our organic growth forecast from flat to -2% for 2012. Given the leverage in the P&L, this drop reduces our 2012F EBIT by 17%.

Randstad: buy – 40 euro (was 53 euro)
Our model is based on a macro-environment similar to 2002-03. In this scenario, revenues would fall 3% organically in FY12, while margins would fall 20bp. Our new €40 TP is based on a mid-cycle EV/net-fee multiple of 2.5x.

TKH Group: buy- 18 euro 9was 20 euro)
We include a mild recession in our model and lower our organic growth forecast from flat to -2% for 2012. Given the leverage in the P&L, this drop reduces our 2012F EBIT by 17%.

TomTom: buy - 7 euro (was 8 euro)
We believe the recent client wins in the automotive division and significant cost savings in FY12 will compensate for the lower PND revenues, hence EPS will be flat in FY12 yoy.

USG People: 12 euro (was 18 euro)
In our model, we effectively replicate market developments seen in 2002/03. In this scenario, revenues would drop 3% organically in 2012, while margins would drop 30bp. Our new TP of €12 is driven by a mid-cycle EV/net fee multiple of 2.0x.

Van Lanschot: sell – 22 euro (was 28 euro)
While Van Lanschot is improving its business mix, the weak economic and market outlook imply that normalised earnings cannot be reached before 2015. At 0.8x 2011F TCE and 15.6x 2012F EPS, it is trading at a hefty premium to its Benelux peers.